------------------------------------------ 2009 ----------------------------------------


to_poly: 2009, D:/web/blg/primeur/private/prices2009-all-scores.csv, note,

USE: s:/primeur2009-poly-4-log.csv, note

Global results
Dependant variableprix 2009 €
Independant variable(s)note note2 note3 note4
Examples372
R20.76263433336362
Adjusted R20.76199280453487
Sigma error0.45401984498217
F-Test(1,370)1188.7764028519(p < .0000*)
Table 1. ANOVA source table
Source of variation SS df MS F Obs F Stat
Regression SSR = 245.0473 dfR = 1 MSR = 245.0473 MSR/MSE = 1188.78 p < .0000*
Error SSE = 76.2696 dfE = 370 MSE = 0.2061    
Total SSTO = 321.3168 dfTO = 371      
* indicates significance
Table 2. Test of regression parameters
Parameter Estimate SE T Obs T Stat
Intercept b0=-4.080819 s{b0}=0.224700 t0=-18.161181 p < .0000*
note4 b1=0.000000 s{b1}=0.000000 t1=34.478637 p < .0000*
* indicates significance

Stepwise selection process for prix 2009 €
Step12
R20.7626 
note1150.16(0.0000)3.41(0.0655)
note21165.34(0.0000)3.43(0.0647)
note31178.29(0.0000)3.45(0.0640)
note41188.78(0.0000) 

-------------- D'AGOSTINO ----------------
K2=54.749695565596 (5.2807620051876)2 + (5.1829767711387)2
(0)
d'Agostino: FAIL

 ------------------ ANDERSON-DARLING -----------------
A2=3.1009004874421
alpha=0
p-value=p < 0.01
A2=3.1009
(p < 0.01)
Anderson-Darling: FAIL

2009 OUT (1) : Haut-Brion blanc;Pessac-Léognan;94;796.56;2.0747044385806

Global results
Dependant variableprix €
Independant variable(s)note note2 note3 note4
Examples371
R20.77209096167001
Adjusted R20.77085232559213
Sigma error0.43954103032889
F-Test(2,368)623.33963579621(p < .0000*)
Table 1. ANOVA source table
Source of variation SS df MS F Obs F Stat
Regression SSR = 240.8538 dfR = 2 MSR = 120.4269 MSR/MSE = 623.34 p < .0000*
Error SSE = 71.0962 dfE = 368 MSE = 0.1932    
Total SSTO = 311.9501 dfTO = 370      
* indicates significance
Table 2. Test of regression parameters
Parameter Estimate SE T Obs T Stat
Intercept b0=5.330074 s{b0}=4.489650 t0=1.187191 p = 0.2359
note4 b1=0.000000 s{b1}=0.000000 t1=2.683891 p = 0.0076*
note3 b2=-0.000047 s{b2}=0.000023 t2=-2.085480 p = 0.0377*
* indicates significance

Stepwise selection process for prix €
Step123
R20.76940.7721 
note1187.28(0.0000)4.27(0.0394)0.56(0.4564)
note21204.27(0.0000)4.31(0.0385)0.57(0.4516)
note31218.98(0.0000)4.35(0.0377) 
note41231.16(0.0000)  

-------------- D'AGOSTINO ----------------
K2=43.892753053427 (4.6725935834335)2 + (4.6967672134653)2
(0)
d'Agostino: FAIL

 ------------------ ANDERSON-DARLING -----------------
A2=2.8635166722759
alpha=0
p-value=p < 0.01
A2=2.863517
(p < 0.01)
Anderson-Darling: FAIL

2009 OUT (2) : La Mission Haut-Brion blanc;Pessac-Léognan;94;725.55;2.0284390201699

Global results
Dependant variableprix €
Independant variable(s)note note2 note3 note4
Examples370
R20.77911893160049
Adjusted R20.77791522005608
Sigma error0.42710791073085
F-Test(2,367)647.26381932425(p < .0000*)
Table 1. ANOVA source table
Source of variation SS df MS F Obs F Stat
Regression SSR = 236.1492 dfR = 2 MSR = 118.0746 MSR/MSE = 647.26 p < .0000*
Error SSE = 66.9486 dfE = 367 MSE = 0.1824    
Total SSTO = 303.0978 dfTO = 369      
* indicates significance
Table 2. Test of regression parameters
Parameter Estimate SE T Obs T Stat
Intercept b0=6.145444 s{b0}=4.366003 t0=1.407568 p = 0.1601
note4 b1=0.000001 s{b1}=0.000000 t1=2.928847 p = 0.0036*
note3 b2=-0.000051 s{b2}=0.000022 t2=-2.318456 p = 0.0210*
* indicates significance

Stepwise selection process for prix €
Step123
R20.77590.7791 
note1224.44(0.0000)5.26(0.0224)1.12(0.2902)
note21243.39(0.0000)5.32(0.0217)1.14(0.2870)
note31260(0.0000)5.38(0.0210) 
note41274.01(0.0000)  

-------------- D'AGOSTINO ----------------
K2=25.251781403977 (3.4663352215129)2 + (3.6381728293301)2
(0)
d'Agostino: FAIL

 ------------------ ANDERSON-DARLING -----------------
A2=2.2834250593216
alpha=0
p-value=p < 0.01
A2=2.283425
(p < 0.01)
Anderson-Darling: FAIL

2009 OUT (3) : Raymond-Lafon;Sauternes;95;30.8;-1.5128620824199

Global results
Dependant variableprix €
Independant variable(s)note note2 note3 note4
Examples369
R20.78672656241105
Adjusted R20.78556113379035
Sigma error0.42023859404512
F-Test(2,366)675.0534081919(p < .0000*)
Table 1. ANOVA source table
Source of variation SS df MS F Obs F Stat
Regression SSR = 238.4295 dfR = 2 MSR = 119.2148 MSR/MSE = 675.05 p < .0000*
Error SSE = 64.6358 dfE = 366 MSE = 0.1766    
Total SSTO = 303.0653 dfTO = 368      
* indicates significance
Table 2. Test of regression parameters
Parameter Estimate SE T Obs T Stat
Intercept b0=5.967016 s{b0}=4.296066 t0=1.388949 p = 0.1657
note4 b1=0.000001 s{b1}=0.000000 t1=2.954908 p = 0.0033*
note3 b2=-0.000051 s{b2}=0.000022 t2=-2.329116 p = 0.0204*
* indicates significance

Stepwise selection process for prix €
Step123
R20.78360.7867 
note1275.45(0.0000)5.34(0.0214)0.6(0.4394)
note21295.86(0.0000)5.38(0.0209)0.61(0.4357)
note31313.7(0.0000)5.42(0.0204) 
note41328.66(0.0000)  

-------------- D'AGOSTINO ----------------
K2=28.988918215165 (4.2164814679737)2 + (3.348164011126)2
(0)
d'Agostino: FAIL

 ------------------ ANDERSON-DARLING -----------------
A2=2.2203138506438
alpha=0
p-value=p < 0.01
A2=2.220314
(p < 0.01)
Anderson-Darling: FAIL

2009 OUT (4) : La Clarté de Haut-Brion;Pessac-Léognan;89;83.28;1.4897204917169

Global results
Dependant variableprix €
Independant variable(s)note note2 note3 note4
Examples368
R20.79364124601775
Adjusted R20.79251051311921
Sigma error0.41348184325768
F-Test(2,365)701.88215718096(p < .0000*)
Table 1. ANOVA source table
Source of variation SS df MS F Obs F Stat
Regression SSR = 239.9977 dfR = 2 MSR = 119.9989 MSR/MSE = 701.88 p < .0000*
Error SSE = 62.4030 dfE = 365 MSE = 0.1710    
Total SSTO = 302.4007 dfTO = 367      
* indicates significance
Table 2. Test of regression parameters
Parameter Estimate SE T Obs T Stat
Intercept b0=5.398342 s{b0}=4.229921 t0=1.276228 p = 0.2027
note4 b1=0.000000 s{b1}=0.000000 t1=2.878769 p = 0.0042*
note3 b2=-0.000048 s{b2}=0.000021 t2=-2.240190 p = 0.0257*
* indicates significance

Stepwise selection process for prix €
Step123
R20.79080.7936 
note1328.54(0.0000)4.93(0.0270)0.65(0.4203)
note21349.79(0.0000)4.98(0.0263)0.66(0.4162)
note31368.23(0.0000)5.02(0.0257) 
note41383.56(0.0000)  

-------------- D'AGOSTINO ----------------
K2=22.793935134062 (3.6661661043644)2 + (3.0582938428595)2
(0)
d'Agostino: FAIL

 ------------------ ANDERSON-DARLING -----------------
A2=1.862773184555
alpha=0
p-value=p < 0.01
A2=1.862773
(p < 0.01)
Anderson-Darling: FAIL

2009 OUT (5) : Le Petit Cheval;Saint-Emilion;91;147.29;1.4865535902963

E_warning:(Division by zero
D:\web\blg\lib\MultipleRegression.inc.php @ L184
Global results
Dependant variableprix €
Independant variable(s)note note2 note3 note4
Examples367
R20.7997010221038
Adjusted R20.79860047826921
Sigma error0.40662259178939
F-Test(2,364)726.64168110893(p < .0000*)
Table 1. ANOVA source table
Source of variation SS df MS F Obs F Stat
Regression SSR = 240.2887 dfR = 2 MSR = 120.1443 MSR/MSE = 726.64 p < .0000*
Error SSE = 60.1845 dfE = 364 MSE = 0.1653    
Total SSTO = 300.4731 dfTO = 366      
* indicates significance
Table 2. Test of regression parameters
Parameter Estimate SE T Obs T Stat
Intercept b0=5.919472 s{b0}=4.162183 t0=1.422204 p = 0.1558
note4 b1=0.000001 s{b1}=0.000000 t1=3.052927 p = 0.0024*
note3 b2=-0.000051 s{b2}=0.000021 t2=-2.403719 p = 0.0167*
* indicates significance

Stepwise selection process for prix €
Step123
R20.79650.7997 
note1368.28(0.0000)5.7(0.0175)0.47(0.4938)
note21391.48(0.0000)5.74(0.0171)0.48(0.4894)
note31411.78(0.0000)5.78(0.0167) 
note41428.8(0.0000)  

-------------- D'AGOSTINO ----------------
K2=17.002062557501 (3.1275883006327)2 + (2.6870530287373)2
(0.0002)
d'Agostino: FAIL

 ------------------ ANDERSON-DARLING -----------------
A2=1.5710231957273
alpha=0
p-value=p < 0.01
A2=1.571023
(p < 0.01)
Anderson-Darling: FAIL

2009 OUT (6) : Carruades de Lafite;Pauillac;91;122.98;1.3120484084862

Global results
Dependant variableprix €
Independant variable(s)note note2 note3 note4
Examples366
R20.80449791855502
Adjusted R20.80342077210077
Sigma error0.4012932282473
F-Test(2,363)746.87886255997(p < .0000*)
Table 1. ANOVA source table
Source of variation SS df MS F Obs F Stat
Regression SSR = 240.5491 dfR = 2 MSR = 120.2746 MSR/MSE = 746.88 p < .0000*
Error SSE = 58.4562 dfE = 363 MSE = 0.1610    
Total SSTO = 299.0053 dfTO = 365      
* indicates significance
Table 2. Test of regression parameters
Parameter Estimate SE T Obs T Stat
Intercept b0=6.381252 s{b0}=4.110049 t0=1.552598 p = 0.1214
note4 b1=0.000001 s{b1}=0.000000 t1=3.205880 p = 0.0015*
note3 b2=-0.000053 s{b2}=0.000021 t2=-2.548226 p = 0.0112*
* indicates significance

Stepwise selection process for prix €
Step123
R20.8010.8045 
note1399.75(0.0000)6.42(0.0117)0.33(0.5674)
note21424.67(0.0000)6.46(0.0115)0.34(0.5627)
note31446.61(0.0000)6.49(0.0112) 
note41465.15(0.0000)  

-------------- D'AGOSTINO ----------------
K2=13.921288887126 (2.7619113565375)2 + (2.5086120755819)2
(0.0009)
d'Agostino: FAIL

 ------------------ ANDERSON-DARLING -----------------
A2=1.3506100249623
alpha=0
p-value=p < 0.01
A2=1.35061
(p < 0.01)
Anderson-Darling: FAIL

2009 OUT (7) : Le Petit Mouton de Mouton-Rothschild;Pauillac;90;86.18;1.2617003209753

Global results
Dependant variableprix €
Independant variable(s)note note2 note3 note4
Examples365
R20.80937001147724
Adjusted R20.80831680712076
Sigma error0.39631864978493
F-Test(2,362)768.48334940697(p < .0000*)
Table 1. ANOVA source table
Source of variation SS df MS F Obs F Stat
Regression SSR = 241.4090 dfR = 2 MSR = 120.7045 MSR/MSE = 768.48 p < .0000*
Error SSE = 56.8588 dfE = 362 MSE = 0.1571    
Total SSTO = 298.2678 dfTO = 364      
* indicates significance
Table 2. Test of regression parameters
Parameter Estimate SE T Obs T Stat
Intercept b0=6.446095 s{b0}=4.059150 t0=1.588041 p = 0.1132
note4 b1=0.000001 s{b1}=0.000000 t1=3.268263 p = 0.0012*
note3 b2=-0.000053 s{b2}=0.000021 t2=-2.600981 p = 0.0097*
* indicates significance

Stepwise selection process for prix €
Step123
R20.80580.8094 
note1437.07(0.0000)6.71(0.0100)0.22(0.6411)
note21463.42(0.0000)6.74(0.0098)0.22(0.6356)
note31486.64(0.0000)6.77(0.0097) 
note41506.28(0.0000)  

-------------- D'AGOSTINO ----------------
K2=11.149068253374 (2.3729693449714)2 + (2.3490603953921)2
(0.0038)
d'Agostino: FAIL

 ------------------ ANDERSON-DARLING -----------------
A2=1.1461139474184
alpha=0
p-value=p < 0.01
A2=1.146114
(p < 0.01)
Anderson-Darling: FAIL

2009 OUT (8) : Le Plus de la Fleur de Boüard;Lalande de Pomerol;91;115.04;1.2544045711893

Global results
Dependant variableprix €
Independant variable(s)note note2 note3 note4
Examples364
R20.81384068281689
Adjusted R20.81280932925909
Sigma error0.39131489148289
F-Test(2,361)789.09960280932(p < .0000*)
Table 1. ANOVA source table
Source of variation SS df MS F Obs F Stat
Regression SSR = 241.6655 dfR = 2 MSR = 120.8327 MSR/MSE = 789.10 p < .0000*
Error SSE = 55.2790 dfE = 361 MSE = 0.1531    
Total SSTO = 296.9444 dfTO = 363      
* indicates significance
Table 2. Test of regression parameters
Parameter Estimate SE T Obs T Stat
Intercept b0=6.889550 s{b0}=4.010278 t0=1.717973 p = 0.0867
note4 b1=0.000001 s{b1}=0.000000 t1=3.420525 p = 0.0007*
note3 b2=-0.000056 s{b2}=0.000020 t2=-2.744902 p = 0.0064*
* indicates significance

Stepwise selection process for prix €
Step123
R20.810.8138 
note1468.36(0.0000)7.49(0.0065)0.12(0.7249)
note21496.55(0.0000)7.51(0.0064)0.13(0.7191)
note31521.53(0.0000)7.53(0.0064) 
note41542.82(0.0000)  

-------------- D'AGOSTINO ----------------
K2=8.6199657031266 (1.9904772695064)2 + (2.1582321336467)2
(0.0134)
d'Agostino: FAIL

 ------------------ ANDERSON-DARLING -----------------
A2=0.96752801970297
alpha=0.01
p-value=0.01 =< p < 0.025
A2=0.967528
(0.01 =< p < 0.025)
Anderson-Darling: FAIL

2009 OUT (9) : La Chapelle de La Mission Haut-Brion;Pessac-Léognan;90;82.26;1.2233787277499

Global results
Dependant variableprix €
Independant variable(s)note note2 note3 note4
Examples363
R20.8184896540131
Adjusted R20.81748126320207
Sigma error0.38649825691648
F-Test(2,360)811.67900882628(p < .0000*)
Table 1. ANOVA source table
Source of variation SS df MS F Obs F Stat
Regression SSR = 242.4987 dfR = 2 MSR = 121.2493 MSR/MSE = 811.68 p < .0000*
Error SSE = 53.7771 dfE = 360 MSE = 0.1494    
Total SSTO = 296.2758 dfTO = 362      
* indicates significance
Table 2. Test of regression parameters
Parameter Estimate SE T Obs T Stat
Intercept b0=6.953980 s{b0}=3.960969 t0=1.755626 p = 0.0800
note4 b1=0.000001 s{b1}=0.000000 t1=3.485566 p = 0.0006*
note3 b2=-0.000056 s{b2}=0.000020 t2=-2.800155 p = 0.0054*
* indicates significance

Stepwise selection process for prix €
Step123
R20.81450.8185 
note1506.76(0.0000)7.8(0.0055)0.06(0.8080)
note21536.53(0.0000)7.82(0.0054)0.06(0.8014)
note31562.94(0.0000)7.84(0.0054) 
note41585.47(0.0000)  

-------------- D'AGOSTINO ----------------
K2=6.2822578440247 (1.5611042473682)2 + (1.9609210521777)2
(0.0432)
d'Agostino: PASS

 ------------------ ANDERSON-DARLING -----------------
A2=0.80797981750226
alpha=0.025
p-value=0.025 =< p < 0.05
A2=0.80798
(0.025 =< p < 0.05)
Anderson-Darling: FAIL

2009 OUT (10) : La Mission Haut-Brion;Pessac-Léognan;96;735.09;1.2160631192919

Global results
Dependant variableprix €
Independant variable(s)note note2 note3 note4
Examples362
R20.81798936927512
Adjusted R20.81697538247443
Sigma error0.38158495947469
F-Test(2,359)806.7061313953(p < .0000*)
Table 1. ANOVA source table
Source of variation SS df MS F Obs F Stat
Regression SSR = 234.9243 dfR = 2 MSR = 117.4621 MSR/MSE = 806.71 p < .0000*
Error SSE = 52.2729 dfE = 359 MSE = 0.1456    
Total SSTO = 287.1972 dfTO = 361      
* indicates significance
Table 2. Test of regression parameters
Parameter Estimate SE T Obs T Stat
Intercept b0=6.548419 s{b0}=3.912651 t0=1.673653 p = 0.0951
note4 b1=0.000001 s{b1}=0.000000 t1=3.400871 p = 0.0007*
note3 b2=-0.000054 s{b2}=0.000020 t2=-2.713596 p = 0.0070*
* indicates significance

Stepwise selection process for prix €
Step123
R20.81430.818 
note1501.07(0.0000)7.3(0.0072)0.26(0.6128)
note21530.31(0.0000)7.33(0.0071)0.27(0.6046)
note31556.17(0.0000)7.36(0.0070) 
note41578.15(0.0000)  

-------------- D'AGOSTINO ----------------
K2=4.3107466231743 (1.234064649088)2 + (1.6696799289222)2
(0.1159)
d'Agostino: PASS

 ------------------ ANDERSON-DARLING -----------------
A2=0.67684084255444
alpha=0.05
p-value=0.05 =< p < 0.10
A2=0.676841
(0.05 =< p < 0.10)
Anderson-Darling: PASS

residuals-poly2009
quantiles-poly2009

-------------- D'AGOSTINO ----------------
K2=4.3107466231743 (1.234064649088)2 + (1.6696799289222)2
(0.1159)
d'Agostino: PASS

 ------------------ ANDERSON-DARLING -----------------
A2=0.67684084255444
alpha=0.05
p-value=0.05 =< p < 0.10
A2=0.676841
(0.05 =< p < 0.10)
Anderson-Darling: PASS


Price estimation (average) 2009 formula:

log(prix) = 6.548419349594 - 5.3772066965774E-5 * note3 + 5.4616961693912E-7 * note4